收入对农村居民旅游需求的影响研究——基于2000—2015年面板数据的实证分析

Effect of income on the rural residents' tourism demands:Based on the panel data from 2000 to 2015

当前,农村居民的旅游消费受到理论界和实践界的共同关注。以2000—2015年我国农村居民人均纯收入及农村居民出游率的年度数据为实证样本,采用OLS回归模型、协整检验以及多项式分布滞后模型研究我国农村居民收入对旅游需求的影响。实证研究结果表明:我国农村居民人均纯收入与出游率之间既不存在线性关系,也不存在长期均衡关系。短期内,二者之间是正向的滞后关系,农村居民人均纯收入每增加100元,将带动农村居民出游率增加0. 689%。在此基础上提出相关对策建议,以期促进我国农村居民旅游需求的提升。

At present,the rural residents ＇ tourism consumption is the focus of both theoretical and practical field. Based on the annual data of rural residents＇ average net income and the tourism rate from 2000 to 2015 as empirical samples,this paper analyzes the influence of the rural residents＇ average net income on the rural residents＇ tourism rate by OLS regression model,co-integration validation and polynomial distribution lag model. The empirical research results indicate that there is neither linear relationship nor long-term equilibrium relationship between the two variables. There is an overall positive lag relationship in a short time,that is,every 100 yuan increase of the rural residents＇ net income will bring 0. 689% increase of the rural residents＇ tourism rate. Finally,based on the empirical results,some tactics and suggestions are proposed to promote the rural residents＇ tourism demands.