制造业“机器换人”对劳动力就业的影响--基于北京市6家企业的案例研究

The Effect of Machine Replacement on Labor Employment in Beijing Manufacturing——Based on Observations from Six Companies

在"人口红利"消失、招工难的背景下,"机器换人"正在成为一种潮流,在这一潮流中"机器换人"对劳动力就业数量、就业结构产生何种影响,目前还缺乏比较权威的实证研究。本文将视角聚焦在北京市制造业,研究发现:当前"机器换人"对劳动力的总体就业冲击不大,但人工智能技术的深入推进将会增强"机器换人"的破坏效应;在此次"机器换人"行动中具有一定专业技术的白领人员也受到了冲击,一方面就业极化现象初现,另一方面数字化、智能化、自动化技术人才严重短缺;企业性质及企业所处发展阶段等特征是决定劳动力被替代程度的重要微观因素。

In the context of the disappearance of the＂demographic dividend＂ and the difficulty of recruitment, ＂Machine substitution＂ is becoming a trend.In this trend, there is a small amount of authoritative empirical research on what effect on the number and structure of labor employment resulted from ＂machine substitution＂.This paper focuses on the manufacturing industry in Beijing and has the following findings：At present, ＂machine substitution＂ has little impact on the overall labor employment, but the further advancement of artificial intelligence technology will enhance the destructive effect of ＂machine substitution＂. White-collar workers with certain professional skills have also been impacted in the ＂machine replacement＂ action. On the one hand, the phenomenon of employment polarization is emerging; on the other hand, there is a serious shortage of digital, intelligent and automated technical talents. The characteristics of enterprise and its development stage are important micro factors that determine the degree of labor force substitution.