农村金融发展对农民收入影响的地区差异研究——基于收入回归的Shapley分解

Study on the Regional Difference of the Impact of Rural Financial Development on Farmers' Income——Shapley Decomposition Based on Income Regression

本文基于 2005~2016年30个省市的面板数据,阐释了农村金融发展现状和我国农民收入水平差异的变化,运用ECM模型、GLS和GMM估计方法进行实证分析,构建出最优收入回归模型;进而基于回归分析运用Shapley值过程分解以基尼系数衡量的地区农民收入水平的差距,阐释以农村金融发展为主的不同因素对于农民收入水平地区差异的影响。通过研究发现:农村金融发展对东中部地区农民收入具有促进作用,而对西部地区农民收入的影响不显著。与此同时,农村金融发展对于农民收入地区收入差异具有较大的影响,但这种作用的成效要低于农业机械化水平的影响。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities from 2005 to 2016,this paper expounds the changes of rural financial development status and the differences of farmers＇ income levels in China. The ECM model,GLS and GMM estimation methods are used for empirical analysis to construct the optimal income regression. Then,based on the regression analysis, Shapley value process was used to decompose the gap of farmers＇ income level measured by gini coefficient,and the influence of different factors,mainly rural financial development,on the regional difference of farmers＇ income level was explained. It is found that rural financial development has a promoting effect on farmers＇ income in east and central China,but has no significant effect on farmers＇ income in western China. At the same time,the development of rural finance has a great influence on the difference of farmers＇ income,but the effect of this effect is lower than that of agricultural mechanization.