基于社会力模型的拉萨大昭寺人群疏散仿真研究

Research on the Crowd Evacuation Simulation based on the Social Force Model at the Jokhang Temple in Lhasa

分析国内外常用的人群疏散理论,并对比各类疏散模型的优缺点,结合仿真案例的场景特点选择社会力模型作为理论模型,分析在突发事件下影响疏散的人员特性。采用基于社会力模型的仿真软件Any-logic对案例场景拉萨大昭寺的人群疏散进行仿真,将人群疏散情况分为局部区域的人员疏散和全区域的人员疏散,针对这两类不同的人群疏散情况,采取相应的疏散措施并利用仿真软件对疏散措施的有效性进行验证。结果表明,所采取的疏散措施通过软件模拟后,对人群的疏散有很好的效果,为预防人群拥挤踩踏事故制定疏散方案提供了依据。

The social force model was chosen as the theoretical model for analyzing the personnel characteristics affecting under unexpected incident based on analysis of the theory of common evacuation at home and abroad, and comparison of the advantages and disadvantages of various evacuation models combining with the scenario characteristics of simulation cases. Simulation of crowd evacuation at Jokhang Temple was conducted in Lhasa based on social force model-Anylogic software. The crowd evacuation was divided into regional evacuation and evacuation of the whole area, these two different situations analyzed and appropriate evacuation measures taken were simulated by software and the effectiveness of evacuation measures was tested as well. The results showed that the evacuation measures simulated by software had a good effect on the crowd evacuation and provide baseline for preventing crowding and trampling accident and for formulating evacuation plan.