甘肃省县域农业特色产业对农业经济增长贡献的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Contribution of County Agricultural Characteristic Industry of Gansu Province to Agricultural Economic Growth

文章选取甘肃省87个县(市区)(含嘉峪关市)2015年农林牧渔业总产值和中药材产量、园林水果产量、畜产品产量、主要农产品产量等统计数据,利用计量经济软件Eviews8.0建立多元回归模型,实证分析县域农业特色产业对农业经济增长的边际效应.研究表明:当县域是六盘山区(基准项)时,在其它变量不变的情况下,中药材产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加1.321233万元;园林水果产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加0.443172万元;畜产品产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加1.724303万元;粮食等主要农产品产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加0.237558万元.当县域是秦巴山区时,畜产品产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加4.625802万元,畜产品产量的边际效应比六盘山区高出2.901499万元.当县域是河西地区时,在其它变量不变的情况下,畜产品产量每增加1吨,农林牧渔业总产值将平均增加3.96294万元,畜产品产量的边际效应比六盘山区高出2.238637万元.结果表明甘肃省县域经济中对农林牧渔业总产值贡献最大的农产品是畜产品,其次为中药材和园林水果,贡献最小的是粮食等主要农产品.

The statistical data of the total output value of agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the yield of Chinese herbal medicines, the yield of garden fruits, the output of livestock products, the output of major agricultural products in 87 counties （urban areas） of Gansu Province （including Jiayuguan City）are selected to estab- lishe a multivariate regression model to empirically analyze the marginal effect of county-level agricultural characteris- tic industries on agricultural economic growth byusing the econometric softwareEviews8.0. Studies show- that Liupan Mountaincounty as the baseline, when the other variables are unchanged, the yield of Chinese herbal medicines in- creases 1 ton, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery will increase by an average of 132,233,300 yuan; for every 1 ton of garden fruit production, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, ani- mal husbandry and fishery will increase by 0.44317 million yuan on average; for every 1 ton increase in livestock pro- duction, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, the total output value will increase by an average of 174, 430,300 yuan; for every 1 ton increase in the output of major agricultural products such as grain, the total output val- ue of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery will increase by an average of 0.237558 million yuan. In the Qinba Mountains, the output of livestock products will increase by 1 ton, the total output value of fishery will increase by an average of 462.582 million yuan. The marginal effect of the output of livestock products is higher than that of Liu- panshan District by 29,041,490 yuan. In the counties in Hexi area, with the other variables unchanged, for every 1 ton increase in the output of livestock products, the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery will increase by an average of 396.924 million yuan. The marginal effect of the output of livestock products is 2.238637 million yuan higher than that of the Liupan Mountains. It shows that the agricultural products that contribute the most to the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the county economy of Gan- su Province are animal products, followed by Chinese herbal medicines and garden fruits. The smallest contribution is the main agricultural products such as grain.