入境旅游效率与出口地理方向——基于“一带一路”沿线地区DEA-面板Tobit的实证

Inbound Tourism Efficiency and Geographical Direction of Export——An Empirical Study Based on DEA-Panel Tobit in "the Belt and Road" Area

利用2006～2015年的相关数据,借助DEA-面板Tobit方法探讨入境旅游效率与出口地理方向的关系。研究发现"一带一路"沿线地区入境旅游效率低下主要是由纯技术效率和规模效率双重低下导致的,"丝绸之路经济带"沿线地区入境旅游市场表现出了更大的潜力。计量模型发现"一带一路"沿线地区旅游企业从业人员过剩是限制其入境旅游效率提升的一大瓶颈,旅游企业数量的增加、入境旅游人次的增多、产业结构的优化、旅游交通的完善都促进了其入境旅游效率的提升。"21世纪海上丝绸之路"各地区入境旅游效率的提高主要依赖于旅游企业固定资产的增加和对外开放程度的扩大。以港澳台为主的入境游客促使出口地理方向集聚,出口地理方向和入境旅游效率呈U型关系。

Based on the relevant data from 2006 to 2015, the relationship between the efficiency of inbound tourism and the geographic direction of export is discussed by means of the DEA-Panel Tobit method, it is found that the inefficiency of inbound tourism along ＂the Belt and Road＂ is mainly caused by the technical inefficiency and the scale inefficiency. The inbound tourism market has shown greater potential along the area of ＂ the Silk Road Economic Belt＂ .The t model proves that the surplus of tourism employees along ＂the Belt and Road＂ is one of the bottlenecks restricting the improvement of the inbound tourism efficiency. The increase of the number of tourism enterprises, the increase of the number of inbound tourists, the optimization of the industrial structure and the improvement of the tourism transportation promote its inbound tourism efficiency. The increase of the inbound tourism efficiency in ＂the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road＂ depends mainly on the increase in the fixed assets of the tourism enterprises and the expansion of the degree of opening to the outside world. The inbound tourists, mainly from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, promote the agglomeration of the geographical direction of export. The relationship between the geographical direction of export and the efficiency of inbound tourism is U-shaped.