人口结构、消费倾向与中国居民储蓄率——基于多模型的组合预测

Demographic Structure, Propensity to Consume and Savings Rate of Chinese Residents——Multi Model based Combination Forecasting

改革开放以来,我国居民储蓄率快速增长,储蓄率之高跃居世界各国前列。本文基于历年资金流量表和宏观统计数据对我国居民储蓄率的变化趋势、影响因素以及未来走势进行了理论和实证两方面的研究。研究结果显示,我国居民储蓄率呈现明显的阶段性特征,在经济转轨时期和国际金融危机后,居民储蓄率的变动主要受收入不确定性影响,其他时期则主要受抚养比、收入分配和房价等因素影响。展望未来,从短期看,收入分配不均衡将有所缓解,房价涨幅将趋于收窄,政府和企业储蓄份额上升;从长期看,经济增速趋于放缓,人口抚养比趋于上升,新生代消费倾向的增加,都将推动未来居民储蓄率出现回落。Markov区制转换模型、SVAR模型、BVAR模型的组合预测结果也支持未来居民储蓄率趋于下降这一结论。

Since the reform and opening up, the savings rate of Chinese residents has increased rapidly, and the savings rate has leaped to the forefront of the world. Based on the capital flow chart and macro statistics, this paper makes a theoretical and Empirical Study on the changing trend, influencing factors and future trend of China＇s household savings rate. The results show that China＇s household savings rate has obvious periodic characteristics. After the economic transition period and the international financial crisis, the change of household savings rate is mainly affected by income uncertainty, while other periods are mainly affected by dependency ratio, income distribution and housing prices. Looking forward to the future, the imbalance of income distribution wiU be alleviated in the short run, the increase of house prices will tend to narrow, the share of government and enterprise savings will rise; in the long run, the economic growth will tend to slow down, the ratio of population dependency will tend to rise, and the consumption tendency of the new generation will increase, which will promote the future savings rate of residents to decline. The combined forecasting results of Markov model, SVAR model and BVAR model also support the conclusion that the savings rate tends to decline in the future.