大国博弈中的全球产业链分化重构

Reconstruction of Global Industrial Chain in the Game of Great Powers

贸易战是大国发展竞争与政治权力博弈的产物,会在全球范围内引发产业链体系的分化与重构。中国会最终赢得中美贸易战,由全球贸易大国转型为全球贸易强国,并成为全球自由贸易体系的维护者、国际贸易新规则体系的主导建构者。美国则很可能会成为中美贸易战的最终失败者,很可能由全球主导的贸易强国转变为一个普通的全球贸易大国,丧失主导甚至参与全球新贸易规则体系的制定与修订的大国地位。中国需要承担大国责任,采取妥善措施积极应对全球贸易战,以维护世界人民的公共贸易为出发点,制定和实施应对贸易战的持久战略,与大多数自由贸易倡导国结成国际自由贸易统一战线,共同遏制全球蔓延的贸易保护主义。

The trade war is the product of the development competition and political power game of the major countries, which will trigger the differentiation and reconstruction of the industrial chain system on a global scale. China will eventually win its trade war with the US, transform itself from a major global trade participant to a global trading power, and become the defender of the global free trade system and the leading constructor of the new rules system of international trade. The US is very likely to lose the Sino-US trade war. It may change from a globally dominant trading power to an ordinary trading participant, losing its leading role in making and revising the global new trade rules system. China needs to shoulder the responsibility as a great power, take appropriate steps to actively respond to the global trade war, formulate and implement a lasting strategy to deal with the trade war with an aim to safeguard public trade of the people of the world, and form an international free trade united front with most of the free trade advocating countries, so as to contain the worldwide trade protectionism.