新农保对农村居民消费的影响——基于地区差异视角

The Impact of the New Rural Social Pension Insurance on the Consumption of Rural Residents——From the Perspective of Regional Differences

本文利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据,并采用倾向分数配对法,基于中国八大人文地理大区差异,实证检验新型农村社会养老保险对农村居民不同类型消费的影响。研究发现:地区变量显著作用于农户参保概率,在倾向分数配对模型中,参与新农保未对农村居民家庭总消费及各类别消费有显著影响。进一步的稳健性分析发现,仅在西北地区新农保对各类别消费有显著促进作用,但从全国范围来看作用并不显著。建议:在现行的地区划分标准(东部、中部、西部)下,中央补助比例可适当调整;加大力度宣传依然必不可少;视地方经济发展速度和中央及地方财政水平,提高养老金支付水平。

Using the Chinese General Social Survey （CGSS） micro data and a propensity score matching method, the paper conducts an empirical test on the impact of New Rural Social Pension Insurance on different types of consumption of rural residents based on the differences of eight major regions of human geography in China. The study finds that regional variables have a significant effect on the probability of farmers＇ participation in insurance. In propensity score matching model, participation in the new-rural social pension insurance does not have a significant impact on the total consumption of rural households and the consumption of various types. Further robust analysis finds that participating in the insurance promotes various expenditures in the central and northwestern China, but the effect is not significant across the country. The central region has received full subsidies from central government as well as northwestern region, but the rural consumption has not been stimulated. Therefore, it is suggested that under the current regional classification standards （eastern, central and western region）, the proportion of the subsidy from the central government could be appropriately adjusted. Seeond, it is still necessary to publicize the policy. Third, the pension payment should be increased depending on the speed of local economic development and the fiscal level of the central and local governments.