中美贸易争端的演进过程、动因及发展趋势

The Evolution Process,Causes and Development Trends of the SinoUS Trade Disputes

中美贸易争端是特朗普执政以来中美关系向负面化发展的重要标志。从时间轴上看,中美两国争端在经历酝酿期、试探期、反复期和升级期4个阶段的发展,最终由互征关税措施的落地而导致贸易战正式打响。综合分析来看,"美国优先"战略的实施、对华产业规则与产业升级的不满和担忧、美国对华战略趋于消极以及国内选举因素的考量是导致中美贸易争端持续恶化的主要动因。短期来看争端解决的难度较大,而美国对华制裁手段多样化、集中打压中国高科技领域发展将成为中美贸易争端未来的发展趋势。

The Sino-US trade disputes are an important symbol of the negative development of Sino-US relations since Trump took office.From the perspective of the time axis,the Sino-US disputes have undergone the four stages of development:the incubation period,the trial period,the back-and-forth period and the escalation period.E-ventually,the trade war has officially started due to the implementation of the measures of mutually imposed tariffs.Seen from a comprehensive analysis,the implementation of the strategy of"America First",dissatisfaction and concerns about China’s industrial rules and industrial upgrading,the negative trends in the U.S.strategy towards China,and the consideration of the domestic electoral factors are the main drivers of the continued deterioration of the Sino-US trade disputes.In the short term,it is rather difficult to resolve the disputes.The diversification of US sanctions against China and its concentrated suppression of China’s high-tech development will become the future development trend of the Sino-US trade disputes.