基于未确知测度模型的中国海外基建项目投资风险评价

Investment Risk Assessment of Overseas Infrastructure Projects of China Based on the Uncertainty Measurement Model

2018年,正逢中国改革开放40周年,改革开放给中国带来的巨大变化举世瞩目,而"一带一路"给全球经济带来的新契机也持续受到各界关注。"一带一路"倡议提出时强调五通,其中基础设施建设是关键。本文结合最新形势,以"一带一路"海外基建项目投资为研究对象,通过识别海外基建项目投资风险指标点,从东道国政治风险、自然环境风险、经济风险、运营风险四个方面构建了海外基建项目投资风险评价指标体系。利用信息熵的方法确定指标权重,运用未确知测度模型,克服了用模糊数学和灰关联测度量化测度企业跨国并购风险的缺陷。通过实证检验,证明该模型具有可行性与可操作性,旨在为新形势下中国企业海外基建项目投资提供参考。

In 2018,during the 40 thanniversary of China＇s reform and opening up,China received worldwide attention for the tremendous changes brought by the reform and opening up. The Belt and Road initiative was put forward with emphasis on five links,of which infrastructure construction is the key link. The ＂Belt and Road＂overseas infrastructure taken as the research object under the latest situation,risk evaluation index system is established which includes host country political risk,natural environmental risk,economic risk,operational risks through searching for the risk indicating points.Using entropy weight method to determine index weight and the uncertainty measure model,the paper overcomes the defect of quantifying risk of transnational investment by fuzzy mathematics and grey correlation measurement. Through the empirical test,it proves that the model has certain feasibility and operability,which is aimed to provide reference for Chinese enterprises to invest in overseas infrastructure projects under the new situation.