收费公路PPP项目运营期风险定量分析——基于偏最小二乘回归

Quantitative Analysis of the Operating Period Risks for Toll Road PPP Projects——Based on Partial Least Squares Regression

PPP项目风险分析对项目的提前终止具有重要作用,目前的PPP项目提前终止研究对风险缺乏足够的定量分析。本文通过对11个典型案例的梳理归纳,给出了9个收费公路PPP项目运营期常见风险;结合企业财务风险管理,建立各个风险因子与项目运营数据的联系,对运营数据进行偏最小二乘回归;最终根据偏最小二乘回归结果,给出各个风险因子对项目的贡献值。通过上市公司案例验证,梅观高速运营期风险的实际情况与测算结果相符,证实了深高速以27亿的回购价提前终止梅观高速的决策是正确的。研究将偏最小二乘回归分析引入PPP项目风险研究,为该领域的风险定量分析提供了新的思路,有效弥补了目前风险研究成果与终止补偿分配不能很好匹配的现状。

Analysis of the risks for PPP projects is important for early termination of PPP project. The current PPP projects＇ early termination studies lack sufficient quantitative analysis of the risks. Nine common operational risks are identified by analysis of 11 typical cases; Based on enterprise financial risk management,the relationship between risk factors and project operation data is established.Then,the least squares regression is performed on the operation data; According to the analysis of partial least-squares regression results,the contribution of each risk factor to the project is given.Through the case verification of listed companies,the actual situation of the risks of the operation period of Mei Guan Expressway coincides with the result of calculation. The results confirmed that the decision of the Shenzhen Expressway Co Ltd to terminate the Mei Guan Expressway in advance with2,700,000,000 Yuan is correct. The partial least squares regression analysis is introduced into the PPP project risk research,which provides a new way of thinking for the quantitative risk analysis in this field,and effectively compensates the current situation that risk research results can＇t match well with termination compensation allocation.