Research Methods of Water Resources Carrying Capacity: Progress and Prospects

水资源承载力的研究方法:进展与展望（英文）

The study of water resources carrying capacity（WRCC）,a major component of resources and environment carrying capacity（RECC）,began relatively recently. However,WRCC has witnessed a rapid development in terms of concept,calculation methods,and empirical research in recent years. WRCC has become an important criterion for rational development and utilization of regional water resources. This paper first briefly reviews the development process of WRCC. It then evaluates and contrasts the representative research methods of conventional trend（CT）,system dynamics（SD）,multi-objective model analysis（MOMA）,comprehensive evaluation（CE）,and dynamic simulation recursive（DSR）. The results show that although there are various methods of WRCC,the major methods used have become out-of-date and stagnant,and new more sophisticated methods and technologies are lacking. Specifically,our analysis found that the index system,scientific robustness and comprehensiveness of evaluation criteria of current research methods are insufficient and need to be improved. In addition,the dynamic research of WRCC should receive more attention,and it requires further study to make it more applicable to real-world uses. Finally,a set of monitoring and early warning systems should be established and applied in demonstration areas to meet the urgent needs of water resource management in the new era.

作为资源环境承载力主要组成部分,水资源承载力研究起步较晚,但近年来无论在概念、计算方法还是实证研究等方面均有较快发展,也已成为区域水资源合理开发与利用的重要判据。本文简要回顾了一下水资源承载力的发展历程,选取常规趋势法、系统动力学方法、多目标模型分析法、综合评价法和动态模拟递推法为代表对水资源承载力的主要研究方法进行评述与对比。研究认为:(1)水资源承载力的研究方法虽然种类较多,但主要方法往往已定型多年,新方法与新技术较为欠缺;(2)当前主要研究方法在指标体系、评价标准制定的科学性、全面性等方面尚显不足,需要进一步完善;(3)未来水资源承载力需要加强动态研究,同时注意与实际结合,尝试建立一套监测预警体系并选取部分地区进行先行示范,满足新时期水资源管理的需求。