空间、规模与结构:城镇化背景下农业流动人口居留意愿变动研究

The Relationship of Space,Size and Structure with Migration Intentions Changing on the Background of Urbanization in China

利用2012年和2016年全国性流动人口调查数据,对流动人口居留意愿的影响因素以及政策在空间、规模和结构上对居留意愿变动的影响进行了分析。发现流动人口选择留下或是离开的比例均有所下降,犹豫的比例显著上升;东部地区更吸引人口长期居留,中部地区受益于政策影响,西部地区正好相反;超大城市具有显著的吸引人口长期居留的能力,中等城市、大城市受政策冲击影响较小; 40~59岁年龄组在城市居留的意愿降幅最大;受教育程度与居留意愿变动的关系对政策反应最为敏感。

Using two national migration survey datasets（ 2012 and 2016）, this paper analyses the influential factors with migration intentions, as well as the impacts of the policy with the space, size and structure. The paper finds that the proportion of staying or leaving the cities both decline, while hesitation going up. The eastern area attracts more people to stay, and the central region is benefited from the policy influence, while the western region is just the opposite. Megacities have a remarkable ability to attract migrants to stay for a long time, and medium and large cities are less affected by policy shocks. The willingness of 40 ~ 59 age group to stay in cities decreases the most. The relationship between education degree and settling intention is most sensitive to policy response.