农民工留城意愿的影响因素及代际差异研究

A Study on the Factors Affecting Migrant Workers' Willingness to Stay in Cities and the Intergenerational Differences

以2014年国家卫生和计划生育委员会"流动人口社会融合专题调查"数据为基础,采用二元Logistic回归模型,研究农民工留城意愿的影响因素及代际差异。研究结果表明:配偶情感与子女照看等因素显著影响农民工的留城意愿。在控制变量中,年龄、收入、流动时间、教育水平、流动范围是影响农民工留城意愿的重要因素,其中教育水平的影响最大。通过进一步的组间比较发现,老生代、中生代以及新生代农民工留城意愿的影响因素存在差异,主要表现为:配偶生活孤独、子女照看以及教育水平对中生代农民工的留城意愿影响更大;迁出地土地耕种只对老生代农民工留城意愿有显著影响;干活缺人手对新生代农民工留城意愿有影响。此外,年龄、性别、子女数量等因素对不同代际农民工留城意愿的影响也不同。

Based on the data of ＂Social Survey of Floating Population＂ conducted by National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2014, the binary logistic regression model was used to study the factors affecting migrant workers willingness to stay in cities and intergenerational differences. The results show that spouse emotion and child-care factors significantly affect the desire of staying in cities; age, income,floating time, educational level and scope of flow are the significant factors influencing the desire of staying in cities, among which, the influence of educational level is the greatest. Through the comparison between the groups, it is found that the factors affecting the willingness to stay in cities are different for the aged, the middle-aged, and the young generation. The main manifestation is that the loneliness of the spouse and the care of children and educational levels are important factors. Farming only has a signifi-cant impact on the willingness of the older generation of migrant workers to stay in the city; lack of labor has an impact on the willingness of the new generation of migrant workers to stay in the city. In addition,age, gender, the number of children and other factors on the different generations of migrant workers to stay in the city are also different.