中国地方债务扩张对地方财政可持续性的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of China’s Local Debt Expansion on Local Fiscal Sustainability

中国地方债务扩张对地方财政可持续性的作用机制和影响效果是制定合理的债务管理政策的重要依据。本文通过建立地方财政反应函数,引入＂财政疲劳＂的概念,扩展基础盈余率在中国地方政府层面下的计算范围,基于中国23个省份2008—2016年的面板数据,实证分析了地方债务扩张对地方财政可持续性的影响效果。实证结果验证了＂财政疲劳＂现象的存在,现阶段中国各省份保持财政可持续性的负债率上限约为（53.11%,68.23%）,大部分地方政府的财政具有可持续性,但个别省份的财政面临或接近不可持续的状态。

The effect mechanism and impact of China＇s local debt expansion on local fiscal sustainability is an important basis for formulating a reasonable debt management policy. This paper establishes the local fiscal response function, introduces the concept of ＂financial fatigue＂, and expands the calculation range of the basic surplus rate under the local government level in China. Based on the panel data of 23 provinces in China from 2008 to 2016, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of local debt expansion on local fiscal sustainability. The empirical results verify the existence of ＂financial fatigue＂. At present, the up- per limit of the fiscal sustainability of China＇s provinces is about （53.11%, 68.23%）. Most local governments have fiscal sustain- ability, but the finances of some individual provinces are facing or close to unsustainable conditions.