摘要
文章针对中美日益激烈的贸易冲突,先行梳理与国际贸易摩擦相关文献资料,建立了技术进步下大国贸易模型,推导得出:国际贸易中一国技术进步在提高本国国民经济利益的同时,可能会损害另一国国民经济利益。我们选择2002~2017年,全球四个主要经济体中、美、欧、日的年度经济数据和中美两国年度经济数据作为研究样本,实证分析得出:在现行国际贸易体系下,汇率、利率指标不是影响国际贸易平衡的显著因素,高科技产品出口占比、贸易开放度和贸易条件才是影响国际贸易平衡的显著因素。中美贸易顺差持续扩大其主要原因是美国严厉限制对中国出口高科技产品和美国不恰当贸易保护主义措施。
In view of the increasingly fierce trade conflict between China and the United States, this paper combs the relevant literature on international trade friction and sets up trade models of great powers under the technological progress. It is concluded that the technological progress of a country in international trade will increase its national economic interests, but at the same time it may damage the national economic interests of another country. Taking the annual economic data(2002-2017) of the world's four major economies including China, the United States, Europe and Japan as well as the annual economic data between China and the United States as the research samples, the empirical analysis shows that the proportion of high-tech products exports, trade openness and terms of trade are the significant factors affecting international trade balance instead of exchange rate and interest rate indexes in the current international trade system. The main reason for the continuous expansion of Sino-US trade surplus is the severe restriction of the United States on the exports of high-tech products to China and the inappropriate trade protectionist measures of the United states.
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第10期88-104,共17页
International Economics and Trade Research
关键词
技术封锁
贸易冲突
保护主义
贸易失衡
technical blockade
trade conflict
protectionism
trade imbalance