不完全信息条件下的FPSO油气泄漏风险分析

Risk analysis of oil and gas release from FPSO based on scarce information

为解决数据稀缺情况下的浮式生产系统（FPSO）油气泄漏重大事故风险评价问题,引入新的层次贝叶斯风险分析（HBA）方法。首先,基于安全屏障和事件树分析,建立FPSO油气泄漏事件序列模型;其次,根据事故先兆数据和贝叶斯推断,对安全屏障的先验分布增加一层估计,得到FPSO油气泄漏连锁事故的发生概率;最后,通过实时更新屏障失效概率,实现对FPSO事故风险的动态定量分析。结果表明：HBA法可以充分利用稀缺数据,并从相关数据中添加先验信息,得到各参数的后验概率,并据此确定,初始的油气泄漏大多会演变为大范围泄漏和小范围火灾。

In order to solve the problem of evaluating the risk of accidents from oil and gas release in FPSO system under the condition of scarce data,a new methodology based on HBA was proposed for risk analysis of oil and gas release in FPSO. Firstly,a sequence model was built for FPSO leakage accidents based on the analysis of safety barrier and event tree. Secondly,on the basis of data on accident precursor and Bayesian inference,a new layer of estimation was added to the basic distribution parameters of the safety barrier and probabilities of FPSO oil and gas release accidents were obtained. Finally,the barrier failure probability in real time was updated to realize dynamic quantitative risk analysis for FPSO accidents.The results show that HBA can make full use of scarce data and add information priors from relevant data to obtain the posterior probability density distribution of each parameter,and that with the increase of time,the posterior probabilities tend to be stable and high,and the operation safety should be paid enough attention at the barriers＇ action which cause disasters and simultaneously prevent release accidents.