基于LMDI的湖南省旅游业碳排放影响因素分解

Factor Decomposition of Impact Factors of Tourism Carbon Emissions in Hunan Province Based on LMDI Model

旅游业碳排放的动力演进机制与驱动效应分析是研究旅游业低碳发展的重要一环。采用投入产出法估算了2008-2014年湖南省旅游业的直接碳排放,构建LMDI指数分解模型分析了湖南省旅游业碳排放的影响因素及其驱动效应与贡献率。研究结果表明:(1)2008-2014年,湖南省旅游业直接碳排放由295.25×10~4t增长到783.14×10~4t,年均增长率为17.45%;(2)2008-2014年,由旅游能源强度、旅游收入结构、旅游消费水平、旅游人数规模与区域人口规模等因素所引起的湖南省旅游业碳排放的变动量分别是-167.91×10~4t、14.81×10~4t、41.48×10~4t、513.63×10~4t、25.18×10~4t,贡献率分别为-39.3%、3.5%、9.7%、120.2%与5.9%;(3)旅游能源强度效应是抑制湖南省旅游业碳排放增长的最主要因素;旅游人数规模效应是湖南省旅游业碳排放增加的最主要原因;旅游收入结构效应、旅游消费水平效应与区域人口规模效应对湖南省旅游业碳排放的影响呈正向,但并不是十分显著。

The driving effect analysis of tourism carbon emissions is an important part of researching for low carbon development of tourism. The input and output method was used to estimate the direct carbon emissions of tourism in Hunan Province from 2008 to 2014, and LMDI exponential decomposition model was constructed to analyze the influencing factors, driving effect and contribution rate of tourism carbon emissions in Hunan Province.The results show that the direct carbon emissions from tourism increased from 295.25×10 4 t to 783.14×10 4 t with an average annual growth rate of 17.45% from 2008 to 2014.The variation in tourism carbon emissions from tourism energy intensity, tourism income structure, tourism consumption level, tourist population size and regional population scale are-167.91×10 4 t, 14.81×10 4 t, 41.48×10 4 t, 513.63×10 4 t, 25.18×10 4 t from 2008 to 2014, with the contribution rates as-39.3%, 3.5%, 9.7%, 120.2% and 5.9% respectively. Tourism energy intensity effect is the most vital factor to restrain the growth of tourism carbon emissions, and the tourist population size is the main reason for the increase of tourism carbon emissions in Hunan Province. The tourism income structure effect, tourism consumption level effect and regional population scale effect on the tourism carbon emissions of Hunan Province was positive, but not very significant.