人口、土地、产业城市化对经济增长影响的差异研究

A Study on the Influence of Population-Land-Economic Urbanization on Economic Growth

基于2001—2016年省级面板数据,分析中国在经济高速增长的过程中,人口、土地、产业城市化对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:全国范围内,人口城市化阻碍经济的发展,产业城市化对经济增长有拉动作用,土地城市化对经济增长作用不明显;人口城市化对经济增长的作用,呈现空间演变趋势,即"东部<中部<西部";产业城市化对经济增长作用空间演变趋势与人口城市化相反,即"东部>中部>西部"。以2008年金融危机爆发为界,人口、土地、产业城市化对经济增长的影响系数有明显变化。基于此,利用新古典经济增长模型,解释人口、土地、产业城市化对经济增长作用及其变化的机理和原因,并提出相应的对策。

This paper analyzes the influence of population-land- economic urbanization on economic growth based on the 2001-2016 provincial panel data. The results are as follows： As far as the whole country is concerned,population urbanization hinders economic growth,economic urbanization promotes it,and land urbanization has no obvious effect on it. The impact of population urbanization on economic growth presents a trend of spatial difference,that is,its degree presents an inequality of East〈Central〈West China. The effect of economic urbanization is opposite to that of population urbanization,whose degree is an inequality of East China〉Central〉 West. Since the outbreak of 2008 world financial crisis,the influence coefficients of population-land- economic urbanization have changed significantly. Based on these results,this paper,using the neoclassical economic growth model,explains the effect and mechanism of three-dimensional urbanization and proposes corresponding measures.