城镇化、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距的关系——基于云南省1986—2016年数据分析

RELATION AMONG URBANIZATION,INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT AND URBAN-RURAL GAIN INEQUALITY BASED ON YUNNAN 1986—2016 DATA

利用内生经济理论中"干中学"模型,构造城乡二元结构下的社会生产函数,对城镇化、产业结构调整与城乡收入差距的短期与长期变化关系进行理论分析,并利用1986—2016年云南省的时间序列数据进行实证性检验。基于分析结果,对改善云南省城乡收入分配不平衡、推动城乡一体化建设以及协调发展工农业提出政策建议。云南省城乡收入差距与城镇化和产业结构调整之间存在先上升后下降的倒"U"型曲线关系:当城镇化率达到28%左右时,城乡收入差距呈现缩小趋势;产业结构比调整到4. 28左右时,城乡收入差距开始缩小。目前云南省城乡收入差距正处于不断缩小的关键时期,城镇化推进与产业结构调整的双向互动对改善云南省城乡收入分配的不平衡起到了积极作用。

This paper uses ＂learning by doing＂model in endogenous economic growth theory to establish the social production function under urban-rural dual structure,which is applied to study the short-and long-term change among urbanization,industrial structure adjustment and urban-rural gain inequality,verified by Yunnan＇s 1986—2016 data.This paper presents policy suggestions on mitigating urban-rural gain inequality,boosting urban-rural integration and coordinating industry and agriculture. Results show an upside-down U shape between urban-rural gain inequality and urbanization industrial structure adjustment,rising then falling. Urban-rural gain inequality trends to diminish as urbanization rate reaches 28%,and starts to diminish when industrial structure adjustment reaches 4. 28. Yunnan is currently in a key period in decreasing urban-rural gain inequality,positively driven by urbanization and industrial structure adjustment.