广西北部湾海洋环境承载力预测及政策设计

Prediction and Policy Design of Marine Environmental Bearing Capacity of Guangxi Beibu Gulf

北部湾海洋环境承载力的现状以及未来趋势对该地区海洋经济能否持续健康发展有着决定性的作用。本文使用状态空间法测算了广西北部湾海洋环境承载力的现状值，通过建立广西北部湾海洋环境承载力系统动力学模型，预测广西北部湾2015～2030年的海洋环境承载力指标数据，并计算了承载力的预测值。研究结果表明：按照目前的发展模式，广西北部湾的海洋环境承载力将在2017年到达满载状态。为了实现广西北部湾沿海地区的可持续发展，推后北部湾海洋资源承载力到达上限的时间，根据仿真系统的内在运行机制，对承载力系统进行政策干预。

The present situation and future trend of marine environmental carrying capacity in Beibu Gulf have decisive effect on the sustainable and healthy development of marine economy in this area. We use the state-space techniques to calculates the current value of Guangxi Beibu Gulf marine environment carrying capacity. And through the establishment of Guangxi Beibu Gulf marine envi ronment carrying capacity system dynamics model, we predict 2015 -2030 marine environment carrying capacity index data of Guangxi Beibu Gulf, and then calculate the predictive value of carrying capacity. The research results show that： according to the current development model, the marine environmental carrying capacity of the Beibu Gulf of Guangxi will reach full load status in 2017. By adjusting the parameters of the policy intervention in the simulation system, we design the future development plan of Guangxi Beibu Gulf to delay the time of carrying capacity reaching the upper limit of the area.