面向地震风险评估的人口空间格网化技术研究

Spatial Grid Transformation Technology of Population Data for Seismic Risk Assessment

人员生命是灾害性地震的直接承灾体之一。及时、可靠的人口暴露数据是地震灾害风险评估的重要基础。为了提高2016—2025年地震风险评估工作中人口空间分布估计的准确性及现势性,本文利用2010年全国第六次人口普查的乡镇人口数据及1∶100 000土地利用数据等资料,在居民地精细化的基础上,建立了基于居民地的人口格网化方法,综合人口增长预测方法制作了2016—2025年中国大陆30″×30″格网(相当于公里格网)人口数据集。研究结果证实,该数据集不仅反映了全国人口城市、镇、乡村人口空间不均匀性特征,且体现了乡镇统计单元内的差异性,为地震风险评估提供了更为翔实的数据支撑。

Life is one of the direct disaster bearing bodies of disastrous earthquakes. Timely and reliable exposure data of the population spatial distribution provide the important basis for seismic risk assessment. In order to improve the estimation accuracy of population spatial distribution, the population data in township-level from the sixth national population census and landuse data in 1：100000 scale were collected. Then, based on detailed refinement of landuse revision, the residential area-based spatial grid transform method for national population was built. After that, using the prediction of population growth method, 30＂×30＂ grid population dataset （2016-2025） in the China's Mainland was produced. The result shows that based on the spatial heterogeneity of urban population, urban and rural population in the whole country （except Taiwan Province）, this dataset reflects the difference in the township statistical units, and provides data support for seismic risk assessment.