陕西省交通基础设施PPP模式风险及补贴机制分析

Risk and Subsidy Analysis of Transportation Infrastructure Based on PPP in Shaanxi Province

随着我国改革开放和市场化进程的推进,陕西省作为西部地区的重要门户和陆上丝绸之路的起点,其交通战略地位日趋明显,在PPP模式盛行的当下,交通基础设施PPP项目逐渐被提上日程。本文首先分析了陕西省交通基础设施发展现状,然后结合国内外14个交通基础设施PPP项目经典案例,总结分析影响其发展的风险因素,最后运用实物期权定价理论,基于项目收入服从logistic函数的假定,考虑车流量年增长率、维护成本增长率和所得税税率风险因素,通过蒙特卡洛模型模拟得出:价格补贴可有效分散项目风险,"轨道交通+物业开发"新型PPP模式可提高项目收益,降低政府补贴。

As the portal of westwards and origin of continental Silk Road, Shaanxi has taken an important strategic position since the promotion of Reform and Opening as well as marketization. Especially in the era of PPP, transportation infrastructure projects based on PPP have been put onto agenda. Firstly, this paper introduces the situation of transportation infrastructure in Shaanxi. Then, with the help of 14 related domestic and foreign cases, a series of risk factors are summarized. At last, regarding dynamic subsidy agreement as real option and operation revenue developing as curve ＂Logistic＂, this paper comes to a conclusion that to some extent, the government.s subsidy can reduce the risk and the＂rail transit ＋ property development＂can improve project benefits, thus reduce the financial subsidy.