自然灾害对我国朝代历程影响的因素分析——基于SAS软件的多元统计分析

我国古代是一个农业大国,幅员辽阔,气候、地质等自然条件复杂,因此各种自然灾害时有发生,在时间和空间上也广泛分布。从可考的史料上看,我国的灾荒之多,世之罕有。自然灾害尤其是大型灾难的发生,给国力会带来大量消耗,并由此对朝代的兴衰产生影响。本文主要以民国26年编著的《中国救荒史》中的数据作为来源,基于SAS软件使用逐步回归方法,对我国古代历朝各种自然灾害发生频率对朝代历程的影响进行分析,在此基础上对朝代进行聚类分析,并对民国进行类别判别。

China was a big agricultural country and vast in territory with complex natural geographical conditions.Therefore various natural disasters occurred from time to time , distributed widely in time and space. From the historical data which can be tested,the large number of disasters occurred in China is rare in the world. Natural disasters, especially the occurrence of large- scale disasters brought a lot of consumption to the national power, and had an impact on the rise and fall of the dynasties.Based on the data from the History of China＇s Land Rescue which was compiled in the 26th year of the Republic of China, this paper analyzes the influence of the frequency of various natural disasters in ancient dynasties on the period of dynasties, on the basis of SAS using stepwise regression method, and then carries on the cluster analysis of dynasties and the Classification of the Re- public of China.