近60a饶河流域径流变化特征研究

Variation Characteristics and Attribution of Runoff in Raohe Basin in Recent 60 Years

基于饶河流域1952-2014年3个水文站的逐日径流系列,采用年际变差系数Cv、年际极值比、距平百分率、Mann-Kendall趋势检验等多种分析方法,分析了饶河流域径流年内、年际丰枯变化特征和变化趋势。结果表明,饶河流域干支流天然径流年内分配和年际变化较为相似,径流年内分配极不均匀,而年际变化极不稳定;饶河流域出现枯水年的几率比丰水年的几率大,丰、枯水期交替变化周期约为20 a; 1952-2000年,各站径流总体上均小幅度递增,但21世纪以来各站径流则呈现减小的趋势。

Based on the daily flow data of three stations in Raohe Basin from 1952 to 2014,the coefficient of variation,interannual extemum ratio,the methods of Kendall Trend Test,anomaly percentage are adopted to study the variation characteristics of inter-annual and annual average runoff and the evolution law of high and low in Raohe Basin.The results show that the inter-annual variation and annual distribution of runoff of the main and branch rivers are similar,and the annual distribution of runoff of the Raohe Basin is extremely non-uniform; the occurrence probability of low year is higher than that of high year and the interdecadal cycle change is about 20 years.The interannual runoff series of 3 gauging stations from 1952 to 2000 assumes an increasing trend,but has shown a decreasing trend since 2000. The results can provide a reference for the comprehensive utilization and development of water resources and water ecological protection in Raohe River Basin.