基于双参数Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成分析

An Analysis of Regional Design Flood Composition Based on Two-parameter Gumbel-Hougaard Copula Function

设计洪水地区组成是流域开发方案设计中需要解决的问题。以淮河流域鲁台子断面、中渡断面1951-2010年洪水资料为基础,充分考虑Copula函数的尾部相关性,选用双参数GH Copula函数构造鲁台子断面与鲁中区间年最大30 d洪量的二维联合分布模型。对比分析条件期望组合法、条件最可能组合法、最可能组合法、同频率组成法4种设计洪水地区组成方法在中渡断面设计洪水分配中的合理性,揭示在不同量级情境下以鲁台子断面为界的上游及区间洪水对中渡断面洪水组成的贡献率。对于中渡断面而言,从洪泽湖的安全及设计合理性的角度出发应选择最可能组成分配方案作为设计参考。

Regional flood composition is a problem to be solved in catchment development scheme design. In this paper,based on the flood data during 1951-2010 at Lutaizi and Zhongdu site,the two-parameter GH Copula function is chosen to construct the joint distribution of annual maximum 30 d flood volumes at Lutaizi and Luzhong interval,taking tail dependence into account. A contrastive analysis is made of the flood distribution rationality at Zhongdu site in the light of four different methods which are conditional expectation composition,conditional most likely composition,most likely composition and equivalent frequency composition. the contribution rate of design flood of each region under different magnitude scenarios is revealed by regarding Lutaizi site as the boundary. For Zhongdu site,most likely composition should be chosen as design reference in view of the safety of Hongze Lake and design rationality.