不同周期视角下我国金融发展对就业的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Financial Development on Employment in China under Different Periodical Perspectives

论文首先基于附加融资约束的数理模型,得到金融发展能有效促进就业。然后,利用我国国家层面的年度时间序列数据,基于协整分析和误差修正模型,分析了我国金融发展对就业的长期和短期影响。实证结果表明:从长期来看,我国金融发展水平对就业存在正向的影响。从短期来看,非均衡误差项对短期波动存在修正作用,使得我国金融发展对就业长期正向影响关系成立。总之,不管从长期还是短期来看,我国金融发展对就业水平都存在正向影响关系。因此,为了达到我国"稳增长,保就业"的目的,政府还需要进一步深化金融体制改革,加强金融市场化,以便更好地促进我国的就业。

Firstly, based on the mathematical model of additional financing constraints, the paper obtains that financial development and can effectively promote employment. Then, using the annual series data at the national level, based on cointegration analysis and error correction model, the paper analyzes the long-term and short-term effects of financial development on employment in China. Empirical results show that, in the long run, the level of financial development has a positive impact on employment. In the short term, the non-equilibrium error term has a corrective effect on the short-term fluctuations, which makes the long-term positive influence of China＇s financial development on employment established. In the short term or in the long run, China＇s financial development has a positive impact on the level of employment. Therefore, in order to achieve China＇s ＂steady growth and job security＂, the government needs to further deepen the reform of the financial system and strengthen the financial marketization in order to better promote China＇s employment.