人民币汇率市场化改革四十年:进程、经验与展望

40 years on the Road of Market-Oriented RMB Exchange Rate Reform:Process, Experience and Prospects

汇率决定和汇率制度选择是长盛不衰的经济学话题,关于汇率管理更是争论不休。本文基于情景和目标两个维度,客观评价改革开放40年来人民币汇率改革,以期达到以史为鉴、用实践检验理论的目的。本文认为改革基本实现了市场化目标,人民币汇率完成了从记账核算工具到宏观经济调节工具的转变,正在实现从宏观经济金融管理自变量到因变量的转变;改革在成功解决汇率高估问题的基础上实现人民币稳中有升,避免了汇率贬值惯性难题;改革的成功在于坚持市场化取向、采取渐进式、积极管理稳定汇率等。让汇率主要由市场决定,协调好政府与市场作用,实行真正的有管理浮动,是适合我国近中期的汇率制度选择,也是未来深化汇率市场化改革的方向。

Exchange rate determination and the choice of exchange rate regime have been enduring topics in economics, while exchange rate management is an even more controversial issue. This paper evaluates the exchange rate reform of RMB from the dimensions of circumstance and objectives, which enables us to learn from history and examine theory by practice. Our findings suggest that exchange rate reform of RMB has basically achieved marketization. It is in the transition from independent to dependent variable in the macroeconomic management after fulfilling the mission being a tool to adjust economy. Reform leads to a gradual appreciation of RMB after dealing with overvaluation issue, beating the trap of currency depreciation inertia. We argue that sticking to marketization and adopting gradual but positive exchange rate policy are the two most critical elements for a successful reform. The appropriate regime for China is a market-oriented managed floating exchange rate considering the harmonization between government and market, which also indicates a direction to deepen exchange rate reform.