商业银行盈利能力的发展与趋势

Trends in Commercial Bank Profitability

本文从宏观经济环境、监管政策环境和银行自身经营情况三方面梳理了影响商业银行未来盈利能力的主要因素。结果表明,2018年下半年宏观经济好转,监管环境整体趋严但拨备率方面有所降低,贷款质量筑底回升,净息差稳中有升,这些因素将促使银行业的盈利能力有所提升。

This article analyzes the main factors affecting the future profitability of commercial banks from the perspective of the macro-economic environment, the regulatory policy environment and internal bank operations. The results of this analysis show that bank profitability will largely reflect an anticipated improvement in the macroeconomic situation in the second half of 2018, a strengthening of the overall regulatory environment but a decline in bank provision rates, a rebound in credit quality and a widening of net interest rate spreads.