产业集聚与雾霾污染的门槛效应研究——以我国73个PM2.5重点监测城市为例

Study on Threshold Effect of Industrial Agglomeration and Haze Pollution: Taking 73 PM2.5 Key Monitoring Cities of China as an Example

从产业集聚外部性出发,结合产业发展周期理论,借助2008—2015年我国73个PM2.5重点监测城市的面板数据,实证检验产业集聚对雾霾污染的门槛效应。研究发现:(1)产业集聚对雾霾污染具有显著双重门槛效应,当产业集聚水平分别位于第一、第三区间时对雾霾污染具有显著正外部性,位于第二门槛区间时对雾霾污染表现为正向影响但并不显著。(2)环境规制力度与雾霾污染显著负相关。进而提出注重产业集聚动态演进变化、动态调整产业集聚水平,制定严苛环境规制政策、引导产业绿色转型的政策建议。

Based on the externality of industrial agglomeration and the theory of industrial development cycle, this paper empirically tests the threshold effect of industrial agglomeration on haze pollution by using panel data of 73 PM2.5 monitoring cities in China from 2008 to 2015. The results are as follows：（1） Industrial agglomeration has a significant double threshold effect on haze pollution. When the industrial agglomeration level is in the first and third range, the industrial agglomeration has a significant positive externality to haze pollution; at the second threshold, the haze pollution is positively affected but not significant.（2） There is a significant negative correlation between environmental regulation and haze pollution. The paper then puts forward some policy suggestions on how to pay attention to the dynamic evolution of industrial agglomeration, such as dynamically adjust the level of industrial agglomeration, formulate strict environmental regulation policies, and guide the green transformation of industry.