基于有限理性决策的分布式风电开发模式

Distributed Wind Power Development Mode Based on Bounded Rational Decision

针对风电开发建设面临中东部和南方地区大面积连片式的优质风资源匮乏,"三北"地区弃风限电现象严重等问题,提出风电项目小型化、分散化、智能化和专业化的开发建设模式。首先,选取风电开发建设决策10个关键指标,构建开发建设决策评价模型。然后,基于两层交互有限理性决策方法,运用"四化"建设理念,在决策评价基础上对设计方案的关键指标进行优化,求得决策者满意度较高的开发建设方案。最后,以某地区的风电场开发决策为例,验证了方法的实用性,为分布式风电开发建设提供新思路。

Aiming at the deficiency of large-scale premium wind resource in mid-east and south region of China,and frequent rationing of power supply in north area of China,this paper puts forward development and construction mode with the characteristics of miniaturization,decentralization,intelligence and specialization in wind power project.Firstly,ten key indices are selected,which affect the decision-making of construction and the evaluation model of decision-making is built.Based on the theory of bilayer interactive finite rational decision,and the idea of miniaturization,decentralization,intelligence and specialization is utilized to optimize the indices of design scheme,which acquires as construction scheme that satisfies the decision maker.Finally,by taking construction decision of a wind farm in a certain area as an example,the practicability is verified and provides a new scheme for distributed wind power.