一类受媒体报道影响的H7N9禽流感模型

A Class of H7N9 Avian Influenza Models with Media Coverage

采用不同的函数刻画媒体报道在控制H7N9禽流感过程中的作用，建立数学模型对2013年春季中国大陆的实际传播数据进行了拟合，给出了不同情况下发病率的估计值．采用PRCC等敏感性分析方法讨论了累计感染人数对于各个参数的依赖性．结果表明，媒体报道对发病率的抑制效应对于降低累计感染人数有明显的效果，而媒体报道对预防效果的促进效应对累计感染人数的影响不明显．

Different functions are adopted to describe the impact of media coverage on the spreading of A/HTN9 avian influenza. A class of mathematical models are proposed to fit the data of A/HTN9 in the spring of 2013 in China's Mainland. The incidence rates in different cases are estimated based on the data. The sensitivity analysis approaches including PRCC are applied to examine the dependence of cumulative infected cases on the parameters. The results indicate that the cumulative number of infected cases is clearly affected by the impact of the media coverage on the incidence; while it is not obvious that the media coverage promoting the preventive effect can help decrease the cumulative number.