基于德尔菲-层次分析法和灰色关联分析的城市公共服务设施承载力评价研究

Evaluation of Urban Public Service Facilities Carrying Capacity Based on Delphi-AHP and Grey Relational Analysis

在当前我国城市化进程加快的形势下，承载政府基本公共服务职能和保障城市运行的城市公共服务设施承载能力面临压力和挑战．在对城市公共服务设施范畴、种类、配置、衡量标准等全面分析的基础上，采用文献法和德尔菲法从中小学教育设施、医疗卫生设施、文化体育设施、社会福利与保障设施、基础生活设施、道路与交通设施、环保卫生绿化设施七个方面确定17种具体公共服务设施并选取47个衡量指标构建城市公共服务设施承载力评价体系，并运用层次分析法计算指标权重．基于德尔菲-层次分析法构建的城市公共服务设施承载力评价体系，采用灰色关联分析法对全国35个城市公共服务设施承载能力现状与城市经济社会发展的协调程度进行实证，验证了构建城市公共服务设施承载力评价体系的价值意义．

Under the current situation of accelerating urbanization, the carrying capacity of the urban public service facilities carrying the government＇s basic public service functions and guaranteeing the urban operation is facing pressure and challenge. On the basis of the comprehensive analysis of the categories, types, configuration and measurement standards of urban public service facilities, the document method and Delphy Fa are adopted in the literature and the education facilities, medical facilities, cultural sports facilities, social welfare and security facilities, basic living facilities, roads and transportation facilities, environmental sanitation and greening facilities. Seven aspects confirm 17 specific public service facilities and select 47 indicators to build an evaluation system for carrying capacity of urban public service facilities. At the same time, AHP is used to calculate index weight coefficient. Based on the Delphi analytic hierarchy process （Delphi AHP）, the evaluation system of the carrying capacity of urban public service facilities is constructed, and the grey relational analysis is used to make an empirical study on the coordination degree of the carrying capacity of public service facilities in 35 cities and the economic and social development of the city. The value of the evaluation system of the carrying capacity of urban public service facilities is verified and Significance.