贫信息背景的复杂装备可靠性预测现状与展望

Status and Prospect of Reliability Prediction for Complex Equipment with Poor Information Background

可靠性预测是复杂装备可靠性设计和可靠性增长的基础,贫信息问题在复杂装备的可靠性预测中普遍存在。首先,总结了贫信息背景的复杂装备可靠性预测关键工程问题,包括小子样数据信息挖掘与预处理、小子样数据序列可靠性预测、贫信息背景的网络可靠性预测以及贫信息背景的参数估计等;然后,综述了处理上述贫信息问题方法的研究现状与不足;最后,展望了基于贫信息背景的复杂装备可靠性预测方法的发展趋势。

Reliability prediction is the basis of reliability design and reliabilit plex equipment. The poor information problem is common in the reliability y growth of the corn equipment. Firstly, the key engineering problems of complex equipment reliability prediction with poor information background are summarized, including small sample data mining and pre processing, small sample data series reliability prediction, network reliability prediction in poor information background, and parameter estimation in poor information background. Then, The study status and shortcomings of the methods processing the above poor information problems are reviewed. Finally, the development trends of the reliability prediction method based on the poor information background are discussed.