海基反导资源部署及作战能力SEM评估

Sea-Based BMD Resource Deployment and Combat Capability Estimation with SEM

为寻求海基弹道导弹防御(BMD)高效资源利用及评估分析方法,提出了一种基于结构方程模型(SEM)的体系资源部署方案优化设计方法。首先,从海基BMD特点出发,讨论了海基BMD体系预警探测、拦截武器和指挥控制等系统的作战资源部署设计方法,归纳了典型拦截器部署方案的优缺点;然后,借助SEM理论,提出利用可测量的作战效能指标,实现对体系作战能力的评估。评估结果可作为海基BMD作战方案优选和作战资源优化部署的有效依据。

To find an effective resource utility method for sea based ballistic missile defense （BMD） and its estimation analysis method, an optimized design method for the system resource deployment scheme is proposed based on the structural equation modeling （SEM）. Firstly, from the characteristics of the sea based BMD, the design method for the combat resource deployment is discussed, including the warning and detection system, the intercept weapon system and the command and control system of the sea based BMD. The advantages and shortcomings of the typical interceptor deployment schemes are summarized. Then, with the SEM theory, a method utilizing the observable combat efficiency indexes is proposed to realize the systemic combat capability estimation. The estimation result can be an effective reference to choosing the classic operation scheme and optimizing the combat resource deployment for sea- based BMD.