西部民族地区“新农保”参保影响因素及效果评价——基于农户调查数据的Logistic回归分析

On Influencing Factors and Effect Evaluation of "New Rural Social Insurance" in Western Ethnic Regions of China Tibetan Literature——An logistic regression analysis based on rural survey data

文章对新农保在西部民族地区影响因素及实施效果进行研究,选取新疆、西藏、宁夏、广西4个具有代表性民族省区的相应地区进行实地调查,利用Logistic回归分析方法总结参保情况的主要影响因素为经济水平、养老状况、参保状况、政策宣传效果、养老金使用这五个方面因素,分析了西部民族地区城乡融合的新农保政策及推行效果。结果表明,经济发展水平、少数民族人口、区域边缘度与参保率成负相关关系,养老金、补贴、政府宣传与参保率及实施效果成正相关关系。

This article contains a research on the influencing factors and implementation effect of the new rural social pen-sion insurance in the western ethnic regions of China by undertaking field investigation in some selected regions of four ethnic provinces, Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia and Guangxi. Logistic regression analysis method has been applied in the re- search and it has found that there are five main influencing factors, they are economic level, endowment status, pension in- surance, policy propaganda and pension use. And then an analysis of the implementation effect of the new rural social in- surance policy in the western ethnic regions has been done and the results show that there is negative correlation between economic development level, the population of ethnic minorities, regions＇ marginalization degree and the coverage of the insurance, but there is positive correlation between pensions, subsidy, government propaganda, insurance coverage and im- plementation effect.