基于PPP模式的城市轨道交通项目风险识别研究

Research on Risk Identification of Urban Rail Transit Project Based on PPP Model

我国城市轨道交通PPP项目从招投标阶段开始在时间上消耗较多, 尤其是在确定风险识别及分担的谈判上, 不仅增加交易成本, 也影响合同的签订及双方参与PPP项目的积极性.因此, 如何正确识别风险是城市轨道交通PPP项目能否顺利进行的首要问题.经过详细分析类似项目的文献及实际案例, 采用定性与定量相结合的方法, 运用文献分析法和频度调查法进行风险的初次识别, 然后运用群组决策特征根法,并使用MATLAB软件进行风险的二次识别, 最后结合西安地铁9号线 （临潼线） 的实际情况, 最终识别出23个关键风险因素.正确识别出城市轨道交通PPP项目的风险因素, 能更好地控制与规避风险, 可以保证项目顺利进行.

The PPP of China＇s urban rail transit spent more time on bidding stage, especially in the negotiation of risk identification and sharing. All of that not only increased the trade cost but also influenced on the singing of the con- tract, and in which influenced the enthusiasm of the both parties to participate in PPP projects. Therefore, how- to cor- rectly identify risks is the most important issue for urban rail transit PPP projects to earry out smoothly. Through anal- ysis the similar projects and practical examples seriously, we decided to use the methods of qualitative and quantita- tive combination. In the risk identification part, this paper used literature analysis and frequency survey method for the initial identification of risk. Then the method of group decision-making eigenvalue was used, and the MATLAB software was used to identify the risks for the second time. Finally, the Xi＇an Metro Line 9 （Lintong） was combined. In line with the actual situation, 23 key risk factors were identified. By correctly identifying the risk factors of urban rail transit PPP projects, it could better control and avoid risks, and made the project proceed more smoothly.