黄河上游某水电站初期导流标准风险分析

Analysis on Risks of Initial Diversion Standard for a Hydropower Project at Upstream Yellow River

以黄河上游某水电站为工程背景,运用风险决策方法进行初期导流标准风险度分析,运用概率的并集计算方法对导流建筑物遭遇超标洪水的各工况进行公式推导与方程组解析,通过备选导流标准对应方案风险期望损失费用分析,科学地找出"标准、费用、风险"三者之间的定量关系,有效地判断所选设计标准的合理性,从而为初期导流标准的选择提供决策依据。本文公式推导成果及风险分析方法在大、中型水电工程中值得推广应用。

A hydropower project at upstream Yellow River is referred in the paper and the risk decision-making method is applied to analyze the risks of the initial diversion standard. The computation method of the union of probability is applied for the formula derivation and equation set resolution of operating conditions for the diversion structures experiencing floods that exceed the standard. Through analysis on expectation of cost loss in risk period in the corresponding plan of the alternative diversion standard, the quantitative relationship between standard, cost and risk is explored scientifically, rationality of the design standard selected is assessed effectively and the decision-making basis is provided for selection of the initial diversion standard. Achievements of formula derivation and the risk analysis methods in the paper are worth of being developed in large / medium-sized hydropower projects.