北京市老年人口与养老机构的空间匹配研究

Spatial Mismatch between Elderly Population and Elderly Facility in Beijing

在人口老龄化、养老方式转变以及制度转型与空间重构的宏观背景下，城市养老机构空间配置的合理性不仅体现了城市资源供给的空间公平性，同时也是对处于弱势地位的老年人口的生活质量的关注。养老机构的空间配置一方面反映出政府、单位、个人等供给主体的区位选择，另一方面也反映出老年人口对养老机构的空间需求。因此，本文基于第三次和第五次人口普查数据以及2001～2006年度北京市福利处对养老机构的年检数据，借助GIS空间分析，将老年人空间分布的需求与养老机构的空间配置的供给进行匹配，揭示出北京市养老机构空间供给与老年人口空间需求的空间错位现象：城市中心区养老机构供不应求，郊区养老机构供过于求，而近郊区内缘老年人口增长较快、老龄化率较高的地区，养老机构的配置明显缺乏。此外，本文认为，单位养老怍为一种新的社区养老模式对解决空间错位的结构性矛盾具备可能性。

Facing increasing aging tendency and the transition of elderly support mode, great institutional transition and spatial restructuring in recent three decades, attentions have been paid on the equitable distribution of elderly support institutions in large cities, which directly influence the life quality of the urban elderly. As to ＂ spatial equity＂ of the distribution of urban welfare facility, the spatial pattern of population demand should be measured. Therefore, based on the urban elderly population data from the 3^rd（1982） and 5^th （2000） census and the statistics data of elderly support institution in Beijing during 2001 - 2005 , this paper explore the status of spatial mismatch between the spatial distribution of elderly support institutions and urban elderly population. It shows that the elderly support institutions in the central districts are in short supply while the situation in the suburb is on the contrary. With a higher density and a greater proportion of elderly population in the inner suburb, yet the provision of elderly support institutions in this area is relatively insufficient. Finally, this paper gives some advices for this problem.