舟山跨海大桥夏季路表温度特征及统计模型

Study on features of road-surface temperature on Zhoushan Bridge over the sea and its statistic model in summer

利用2010—2016年舟山跨海大桥沿线自动气象站逐分钟气温、路表温度资料和舟山站逐时日照时数资料,通过质量控制方法筛选站点,讨论了复杂多样的下垫面条件下,跨海大桥夏季最高气温、最高路表温度分布特征,并根据其特征分类建立线性统计模型。结果表明:最高气温分布自西向东呈"递减—弱递增"趋势,转折点位于册子岛。最高路表温度分布与大桥所在下垫面类型相关,下垫面为海面时(海面类),最高路表温度高;下垫面为陆地时(陆地类),最高路表温度低。受海岛复杂地形影响,册子岛以东站点并不完全满足上述规律。根据下垫面类型建立最高路表温度的统计模型,模型反映日照项对海面类路表温度的贡献明显大于陆地类,气温项对两类路表温度的贡献相差不大。模拟整体效果较好,但由于统计方法对样本的依赖性,部分样本预测值与实测值间仍存在较大偏差。此外,本文的质量控制方法能够较灵敏地反映跨海大桥站点的错误数据,一定程度上避免了其对结果的干扰。

Based on datasets of Zhoushan Bridge over the sea,including air temperature and road-surface temperature,the features of maximum air temperature and maximum road-surface temperature in summer were discussed after the data undergone the quality control.According to different types of underlying surface,the statistic models of road-surface temperature were established using sunshine duration dataset of Zhoushan and a maximum air temperature of Zhoushan Bridge over the sea.The results show that the maximum air temperature decreases and then increases weakly from west to east,the transition zone appears on the Cezi island.Most of the stations＇ maximum road-surface temperature are directly related to the underlying surface type.The stations can be divided into two categories,i.e. over the sea and over the land.The maximum road-surface temperature at stations over the sea category is much higher than that at stations over the land category.The statistic models of road-surface temperature reflect that sunshine duration item contributes a larger portion at stations over the sea category than that at stations over the land.According to the evaluation results of the statistic models,it shows that models perform poorly,partly due to the flaw of the linear regression method.Meanwhile,the quality control approach adopted in this paper can sensitively reflect the wrong station data.At a certain extent,it avoids the disturbance of the wrong data on the results.