济南市医疗卫生经费水平对医疗卫生行业稳定性的冲击研究

Study on Effect of Medical Health Expense Level in Jinan on the Stability of Medical Health Industry

目的该研究使用济南市的数据构建了医疗卫生稳定性指数(HSI)以衡量医疗卫生行业稳定性,并探究医疗卫生经费水平对医疗卫生行业稳定性的影响情况。方法选取医疗卫生稳定性指数的变量,使用突变级数评价法确定各方面的稳定性指数,使用CRITIC赋值法确定各方面权重以计算医疗卫生稳定性指数,并确定风险识别指数,根据格兰杰检验结果构建回归模型,预测医疗卫生行业稳定性水平。结果医疗行业的3个方面的稳定性水平在某些时期存在一定程度上的趋同性,且济南市医疗卫生行业稳定性较低的时期大多出现在单一方面出现大幅波动的时期。结论医疗卫生经费水平增加是医疗卫生行业稳定性增加的格兰杰原因,对医疗卫生行业稳定性具有预测能力。滞后一期的医疗卫生经费指数的增量对医疗卫生稳定性指数的增量影响显著,医疗卫生经费增加对医疗卫生行业稳定性产生持续且积极的影响。

Objective To construct the HIS to measure the stability of medical health industry and study the effect of medical health expense level in Jinan on the stability of medical health industry. Methods The variable of HIS was selected, and the stability index of various aspects were determined by the evaluation of catastrophe series, and the weight of various aspects was determined by the CRITIC approximation of value assignment to calculate the medical health stability index, and determine the risk identification index, and the stability level of medical health industry was predicted according to the construction and regression model of Grainger test results. Results The stability level showes a certain homoplasy in some period in the three aspects of the medical industry, and the single aspect is greatly fluctuated when the medical health industry stability is lower in Jinan. Conclusion The increase of medical health expense level is the cause of the increase of medical health industry stability, which is of predicative ability to the medical health industry stability, and the increment of medical health expense index in the lag one stage, and the increase of medical health expenses can impose a continuous and active effect on the stability of medical health industry.