消费者风险厌恶下的期权预售模型研究

Research on option advance sales model under consumers’ risk aversion

在预售交易中可能会发生实物价值与消费者估值相差较大的情况,使消费者在选择预售时存在很大的风险.为了避免这种风险,将期权理论引入到预售策略中,建立期权预售模型,求解出最优订购量和最优期权执行价格,并与普通预售策略进行对比.研究发现消费者的估值范围和批发价格均存在某个临界值是零售商选择预售策略的关键,当估值范围或批发价格大于该临界值时,期权预售策略优于普通预售策略,且消费者风险厌恶系数越大,期权预售的优势就越明显.

In recent years,advance sales has become a popular way to launch new products. However,in the advance sales transactions may occur the situation that the physical value and consumer valuation are quite different, so that the consumers who choose advance sales run a big risk. As one of the financial instruments to avoid risks, the option can make up for the shortcomings caused by the difference between the consumer valuation and the physical value in the advance sales strategy. So the option theory is introduced into the advance sales strategy in this paper, the option advance sales model is established to obtain the optimal order quantity and the optimal option execution price, then compared with the ordinary advance sales strategy. The study find that there are certain critical values of the range of the consumer and purchase cost, which are the key for the retailer to choose the advance sales strategies. When the consumer is risky, if the valuation reference is greater than zero, the retailer implements the option advance sale strategy; If the valuation reference is less than zero, the choice of the advance sales strategy depends on the cost： if the cost is greater than the critical value, the option advance sales strategy is better, if the cost is less than the critical value, the general advance sales strategy is better. When the consumer is risk aversion,due to the existence of risk resistance items,implementing the option advance sales strategy has more relaxed conditions. Meanwhile, and the bigger the risk aversion coefficient is, the more obvious the advantages of option advance sales.