贸易开放、人口规模与中国地方政府规模:驱动还是补偿

TRADE OPENNESS,POPULATION SIZE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SIZE IN CHINA: MEDIATION OR COMPENSATION

针对贸易开放、人口规模和中国地方政府规模之间联系究竟是驱动促成还是补偿所致的争论,本文基于中国29个省份1978—2013年三个维度样本数据,首先考察三者之间的关系,研究发现贸易开放对地方政府规模具有正向影响,人口规模对地方政府规模的影响不确定,人口规模对贸易开放存在正向影响。采用多种内生性处理方法的估计表明,贸易开放对地方政府规模的正向影响是因果性的。上述结论在不同的估计方法、数据类型、模型设定下均十分稳健。人口规模并未在贸易开放与中国地方政府规模的正向联系中起到居间驱动作用,贸易开放基于风险补偿机制直接推动了中国地方政府规模的不断膨胀。因此,伴随"一带一路"的有序推进,适度提高地方政府在民生领域的支出规模可能势在必行。

This paper uses a panel that contains data for China＇s 29 provinces covering the 36-year period 1978--2013, and examines the mediation or compensation relationship between trade openness, population size and local government size. The estimates indicate openness is significant positive association with local government size, population size is ambiguous association with local government size, and population size is significant positive association with openness. Moreover, estimation of several instrumental variables strategies provides an overwhelming support for a positive causality from openness to local government size. Therefore, the increase in openness leads to an increase in China＇s local government size through compensation transmission, and it seems unlikely that positive association between openness and local government size arises due to the mediating role of population size. With the establishment of ＂One Belt and One Road＂, the local government size needs to further expand properly in the Chinese people＇s livelihood field.