基于一般均衡的不同税制对住房价格影响的比较分析

A Comparative Analysis of the Effects of Tax Regimes on Housing Prices Based on a General Equilibrium Model

针对参与者预期具有异质性的房地产市场，在一般均衡模型框架下对以营业税为代表的住房转让环节税收和对住房持有环节征收的房产税对房价的影响作用进行分析和比较．理论研究结果表明，房地产税通过影响预期较为中性的参与者的交易决策改变市场均衡（价格），且转让环节与持有环节的税收具有相反的价格效应征收住房转让环节营业税或提高营业税税率会使房价升高，无法起到抑制价格泡沫的作用；征收住房持有环节房产税或提高房产税税率则会使房价降低．对于房产税政策，如果对增量和存量住房统一征收房产税，则市场均衡价格较仅对增量征税时低，即存量房产税通过扩大市场供给降低房价．此外，文章提出了相关政策建议并证明了模型设定的连续性．

In this paper, we analyze and compare the effects of housing transfer tax （represented by business tax） and property tax on housing prices, under the analytical framework of a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents. The results of theoretical research show that, real estate taxes alter market equilibrium （price） by influencing the trading decisions of the agents with relatively neutral expectations,and the taxes on housing transfer or housing possession have opposite price effects： Levying business tax on housing transfer or increasing business tax rate will raise the house price, thus it cannot restrain the housing bubbles; while levying property tax on housing possession or increasing property tax rate will lower the house price. As for property tax policy, if the tax is levied uniformly on housing increment and stock, then the market equilibrium price is lower than when the tax is levied on increment only, that is, property tax on housing stock lowers the house price by enlarging market supply. In addition, we propose suggestions for corresponding policies and prove the continuity of the model specification.