抚养负担与储蓄关系再检验:基于年轻人储蓄视角的研究

A New Test on the Relationship between Dependency Burden and Savings:Based on Young People's Savings Perspective

在理论分析的基础上,重新审视了抚养负担与储蓄的关系,发现抚养负担影响的是年轻人储蓄,并通过引入贡献率分解的思想来区分出年轻人储蓄,然后从实证上考察抚养负担与年轻人储蓄之间的关系。具体表现为:首先,构建了一个三期世代交叠模型,分析并论证了抚养负担对年轻人储蓄会产生负向影响;其次,采用贡献度分解的方法估计出了年轻人储蓄额;最后,基于2002-2014年我国31个省份的面板数据,分别构建静态面板和动态面板,来验证抚养负担对年轻人储蓄的负向影响。实证结果显示:少儿抚养比和出生率反映的抚养负担在静态面板模型和动态面板模型中皆对年轻人储蓄有显著的负向影响,抚养负担对年轻人储蓄的负向影响在实证上是稳健的。但是在分区域的样本回归中,这一结论也存在着地区差异性。

On the basis of theoretical analysis, this paper re-examines the relationship between the burden of support and savings, and finds that the burden of support affects the savings of young people, and by introducing the idea of contribution rate decomposition to distinguish the savings of young people, and then empirically examine the relationship between the burden of support and the savings of young people. Firstly, this paper constructs a three - period OLG model and analyzes the impact of dependency burden on young people＇ s savings. The results show that the dependency burden has a negative impact on young people＇ s savings. Secondly, the amount of young people＇ s savings was estimated using a contribution decomposition method. Finally,based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China during 2002 -2014,static panels and dynamic panels were constructed to verify the negative impact of dependency burden on young people＇ s savings. The empirical results show that child dependency ratio and birth rate both has a significant negative effect on young people＇ s savings in static panels and dynamic panels. The negative impact of dependency on young people＇ s savings is empirically sound. However,in the sample regression of sub-regions, there are also regional differences in this conclusion.