电动汽车普及对江苏冬季大气污染影响的数值模拟

Simulating studies of the effect of the popularization of electric vehicle on air pollution in Jiangsu Province in winter

为研究电动汽车普及对空气质量的影响,首先利用机动车排放计算模型MOBILE估算了在电动汽车替代50%小型载客车情景下江苏省的大气污染物排放量,并利用中尺度气象-化学模式(WRF-Chem)模拟和分析了电动车替代前后冬季污染物浓度的变化特征.结果表明,如果用电动汽车替代小型载客车,江苏省13个地级市的CO、NO_x、VOC排放量都有所降低,减排量从地区来看,苏南>苏中>苏北.电动汽车替代将会造成江苏地区由交通排放引起的CO浓度降低20%～35%,氮氧化物浓度降低10%～30%,减排效果总体上苏南地区好于苏中和苏北地区.交通排放对于SO_2、一次PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)的贡献小,也可能是因为清单低估了交通源对它们的贡献,因此,减排效果不明显.受NO_x影响,交通减排增加了O_3浓度.

To study the influence of the popularization of electric vehicle on air quality,a vehicle emission model（ MOBILE） was firstly used to calculate the emissions of air pollutants in Jiangsu province when electric vehicle substitute 50% light-duty passenger car,and the meso-scale atmospheric dynamicschemical model（ WRF-Chem） was then employed to simulate and analyze the changes of air pollutants concentration with and without electric vehicle substituting. The results showed that,the emissions of CO,NOx and VOC in 13 cities of Jiangsu decreased and SJ（ south of Jiangsu） CJ（ central of Jiangsu） NJ（ north of Jiangsu） if electric vehicle substituted 50% light-duty passenger car. The CO and NOx concentration induced by transportation decreased by 20% ～ 35%,10% ～ 30% in Jiangsu when emission was reduced and generally reduction effect was better in SJ than CJ and NJ. The transportation emission has little contribution to SO2,and primary PM2.5 and PM（10）,which possibly because the emission inventory underestimates the contribution from transportation,so the effect of reducing emissions is not obvious. O3 concentration was increased by reducing transportation emission because of the influence of NOx.