住房价格、土地价格与地方政府行为

House Prices,Land Prices and Local Government Behavior

本文基于全国35个大中城市2005—2015年的面板数据,通过构建具有"空间依赖"性质的房价、地价空间面板联立方程模型,深入研究房价与地价关系、地方政府行为对房价和地价的作用机制以及城际间的相互作用。研究表明,邻近城市的房价相互"模仿"并一同推动地价上涨,房价对地价的影响呈现"模仿促进"的作用特征;各城市通过尽可能抬高本地地价来拉大与邻近城市地价水平的差距,进而推高房价,实现"以地生财"。此外,研究还证实地方政府通过"价格途径"和"政策途径"均能对房价进行有效调控,且"价格途径"具有一定的传染性;而"数量途径"和"结构途径"作为地方政府控制地价的有效手段,具有较强的溢出效应。

Based on the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2005 to 2015,this paper studies the relationship between housing price and land price,the mechanism of local government behavior on housing price and land price,and the inter-city interaction,by constructing the model of spatial panel simultaneous equation. It is shown that the housing prices of neighboring cities mutually imitate and jointly promote land prices,the impact of housing prices on land prices presents the characteristics of＂imitation and promotion＂; the cities by widening the local land prices as much as possible to widen the gap with the adjacent urban land prices,and then raise the housing price to achieve＂make money＂. In addition,the paper shows that local governments by the ＂price channel＂and ＂policy channel ＂can effectively control housing prices,and the former is ＂infectious＂; ＂quantitative channel＂and＂structure channel＂as the effective means for local government to control land prices,can generate the strong spillover effect.