基于Monte-Carlo仿真的可修产品任务成功率计算方法及应用

Calculation Method and Application for Dependability and Mission Mintainability of Repairable Products Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

当产品任务维修性设计允许其在线维修且任务剖面的时间要求具有一定的弹性时,通过理论方法计算产品任务成功率的解析解存在较大难度。针对该问题,首先梳理并分析了相关概念;然后,通过推理在线可维修产品完成任务时成功或失败概率事件过程,建立了基于Monte-Carlo仿真的任务成功率计算方法;最后,通过示例展示了方法的应用方向及有效性。

In reliability engineering practice, the product is repairable on line and the mission time is flexible. It is difficult to calculate the product dependability through the theoretical method. To the question, the relevant terminologies are listed and analyzed. Then, the occurrence processes of the probabilistic events related to the mission success or fail are derived. A method based on Monte-Carlo simulation is proposed. Finally, examples are presented to demonstrate the availability of the proposed method to solve the problem.