美国国债市场开放史——基于货币回流的一般范式

The Opening History of the U.S. Treasury Securities Market—Based on the General Paradigm of Offshore Currency Reflux

随着人民币国际化程度加深,中国债券市场将不断扩容和开放,近期国内外市场表现出对该趋势的较高期待。然而,国债市场作为一国债券市场的核心,其开放问题的相关研究却相当匮乏。本文从货币流动全貌出发,提出了一个含有五类模式的货币回流一般范式,并在此框架下结合各类统计数据和历史文献,分市场和分阶段考察了美国国债市场开放历程。研究发现:第一,货币国际化需要多模式的货币回流;第二,国债市场开放的关键是直接开放在岸市场,而仅仅连接非离岸市场;第三,美国国债市场的开放是渐进有序的;第四,这种开放可分为"政府推动"和"外需拉动"两种类型,并交替出现;第五,在岸国债市场的开放度应当同境外货币回流需求相适应,且这种适应程度将影响该货币的国际地位。

With the internationalization of RMB, China＇s bond market has been increasingly enlarged with greater degree of openness, which is highly expected by the market at home and abroad. Nevertheless, the openness of treasury securities market, as a core of a country＇s bond market, is rarely discussed. Starting from an overall analysis of liquidity movement, this paper proposes a general paradigm of offshore currency reflux with five modes, and studies the opening history of the U.S. treasury securities market within this frame by using statistical data and historical materials. It concludes：（ 1）currency internationalization requires currency reflux in multiple modes;（2） the key to opening treasury securities market is not offshore market but onshore market;（3） the U.S. treasury securities market became open gradually;（4） the openness can be classified into two kinds, ＂ government-pushing＂ and ＂ foreigner-demand-pulling＂;（5） the openness should be matched with offshore currency reflux demand, which tends to influence the currency＇s international role.